Friday, November 5, 2010

What to Look for in Today’s Preliminary Ranked-Choice Results

By Robert Gammon
Fri, Nov 5, 2010 at 10:40 AM

As we reported yesterday, when the Alameda County Registrar of Voters runs the ranked choice program this afternoon, it will show results that may later prove erroneous. But since it appears that the registrar is going forward with it anyway, and today’s results will only be preliminary, let’s take a look of what we might expect them to show:

Oakland Mayor’s Race

1. The results will indicate how the second- and third-place choices for people who picked one of the six bottom-tier candidates as their first choice are going to break. In other words, did the folks who voted for Marcie Hodge, Don Macleay, Greg Harland, etc., as their first choice, select Don Perata, Jean Quan, Rebecca Kaplan, or Joe Tuman as their second or third picks?

2. Then, the results likely will indicate how the second- and third-place choices of voters who selected Joe Tuman first will go. Will they benefit Perata, Quan, or Kaplan?

3. If Kaplan can’t get enough of a boost from Tuman and the other candidates’ supporters, the results will indicate how ballots that listed her first will break. For Quan to move into the lead, she’ll need to have been listed above Perata on the overwhelming majority of ballots that selected Kaplan ahead of her.

4. If Kaplan does get enough support from Tuman and the other candidates’ backers to leapfrog over Quan, then we’ll get an indication of what Quan supporters did on their ballots. Again, Kaplan we’ll need to have been listed above Perata on a super majority of ballots that went for Quan ahead of her in order to move past the ex-senator.

5. Finally, if Perata is shown to have easily gone over the 50-percent mark, will the news media declare him the winner — even though the results are still preliminary because there are so many ballots still to count?

Oakland City Council District 4:

Similarly, the preliminary results released this afternoon will indicate the second- and third-place selections of voters who backed the five candidates who are running behind the two leaders — Libby Schaaf and Jill Broadhurst. However, Schaaf’s current 20-point lead over Broadhurst may be too large to overcome no matter what happens.

San Leandro Mayor
The results will indicate how the second-place choices of voters who selected Joyce Starosciak are going to break. Will they benefit Mayor Tony Santos or challenger Stephen Cassidy? Those two currently are only separated by 27 votes.

Berkeley City Council District 7
We should get an indication of whether people who voted for Ces Rosales, who is currently in third, selected George Beier as their second choice in a unified bloc. Or did enough of them select Councilman Kriss Worthington second to allow him to win reelection?

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