Parke Skelton 
Member since Nov 7, 2010


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Re: “Quan Probably Was Leading the Entire Time, And She Has To Be the Odds-On Favorite

Robert:
My maybe inartfully expressed point is that the composition of the Kaplan vote at 12% is very different than the composition at 21%. And very different from the composition of the Kaplan vote at 29%, after the Tuman dump. I think the dynamics of the race changed over the 6 week period for certain, as the "anybody but Don" vote congealed. But I also think the 17 point difference between 12% and 29% were voters mostly voting for Kaplan, Quan, Tuman in various rankings. It's not surprising that they would have overwhelmingly gone to Quan.

Posted by Parke Skelton on 11/07/2010 at 8:36 PM

Re: “Quan Probably Was Leading the Entire Time, And She Has To Be the Odds-On Favorite

Re: your last sentence. The other, and likely correct, explanation is that the Kaplan electorate 6 weeks ago was smaller than the Kaplan electorate on Election Day. Kaplan surged late (with a late large IE from the Nurses and some good endorsements), moving some Quan #1, Kaplan #2 voters to Kaplan #1, Quan #2. But, thanks to RCV, they all came back.

Posted by Parke Skelton on 11/07/2010 at 10:24 AM

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