Monday, November 12, 2012

Dan Kalb and Rob Bonta Win; Berkeley Measure S Loses

By Robert Gammon
Mon, Nov 12, 2012 at 10:43 AM

We're finally calling several election contests after the Alameda County Registrar of Voters tabulated more than 70,000 late-arriving ballots over the weekend and the new updates failed to change the races significantly. In all, the registrar has counted more than 150,000 ballots since Election Night, bringing the total ballots cast in the county to 551,140 as of late Sunday.

Registrar Dave MacDonald told the Express on Saturday that his office planned to begin counting the 40,000 provisional ballots today. However, we think those votes are unlikely to change the outcomes of the contests we're now calling. Any race that's still closer than 2 percentage points remains too close to call.

As a result, we're calling Dan Kalb as the winner of the Oakland City Council District 1 race. In ranked-choice balloting, Kalb has maintained a substantial lead over Amy Lemley since last Tuesday. Currently, he's ahead 51.91 percent to 48.09 percent.

In Berkeley, Measure S, the sit/lie ordinance, has lost. Measure S has been losing since Election Night, and currently is behind 48.38 percent to 51.66 percent. However, we think Measure T, West Berkeley development, is still too close to call. It's losing 49.52 percent to 50.48 percent, a margin of 440 votes.

In the 18th Assembly District race, we're declaring Rob Bonta to be the winner. Alameda's vice mayor has led Abel Guillen since Election Night, and is currently ahead 51.06 percent to 48.94 percent, a margin of nearly 3,000 votes.

As a result of that race, we're also calling the Alameda City Council contest. With Bonta leaving that council, there are now three winners, instead of two: Marilyn Ezzy Ashcraft, Tony Daysog, and Stewart Chen.

Finally, we're also calling the Peralta Colleges Trustee Area 2 race for Meredith Elayne Brown.

Click here for the contests that we think are still too close to call.

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