Wednesday, November 7, 2012

The Election Is Not Over in the East Bay: Many Contests Are Still Too Close to Call

By Robert Gammon
Wed, Nov 7, 2012 at 9:04 AM

There are still several political contests in the East Bay, including the Oakland District 1 city council race, that are still too close to call, because there are still tens of thousands of ballots to count. The Alameda County Registrar of Voters Office plans to release an estimate later today on how many late absentee and provisional ballots that have not yet been tallied countywide. In 2010, the registrar had 122,000 total late absentees and provisionals that were counted after Election Day. And it's safe to assume that there are at least that many ballots this year, since 2012 is a presidential election. As a result, we'll be keeping a close eye on several East Bay races in the coming days.

Based on past elections, we consider any local race that is closer than 5 percentage points at this point to be still too close to call. For bigger races, such as countywide contests, anything closer than 8 percentage points is still to close to call.

Here are the following races that we think could change once all the late absentees and provisionals are counted (late absentees are those that voters dropped off at the polls yesterday and provisionals are ballots given to voters who showed up at the wrong precinct):

Oakland Council District 1 (RCV)
Dan Kalb: 52.2%
Amy Lemley: 47.8%

Berkeley Measure S
Yes: 48.4%
No: 51.6%

Berkeley Measure T
Yes: 49.8%
No: 50.2%

Alameda City Council (Top 2 win)
Marilyn Ezzy Ashcraft: 25.1%
Tony Daysog: 18.1%
Stewart Chen: 16.9%
Jeff Cambra: 15.8%
Jane Sullwold: 12.7%

Albany City Council (Top 3 win)
Peggy Thomsen: 22.4%
Peter Maass: 17.3%
Michael Barnes: 16.2%
Nick Pilch: 15.4%
Tod Abbott: 13.9%

San Leandro Council District 2 (RCV)
Morgan Mack-Rose: 49.7%
Ursula Reed: 50.3%

Alameda County Measure A1 (Needs 66.7% to pass)
Yes: 62.7%
No: 37.3%

Alameda County Measure B1 (Needs 66.7% to pass)
Yes: 65.7%
No: 34.5%

Peralta Community Colleges Trustee Area 2
Meredith Elayne Brown: 41.0%
Jurena Storm: 37.8%

Richmond City Council (Top 3 win)
Nat Bates: 17.9%
Tom Butt: 15.6%
Gregory Bell: 15.2%
Eduardo Martinez: 14.1%
Marilyn Langlois: 11.2%

18th Assembly District
Abel Guillen: 49.2%
Rob Bonta: 50.8%

20th Assembly District
Bill Quirk: 51.3%
Jennifer Ong: 48.7%

BART District 7

Zakhary Mallett: 26,596 (34.7%)
Lynette Sweet: 24,514 (32.1%)

15th Congressional District
Pete Stark: 46.9%
Eric Swalwell: 53.1%

Update: We pulled Prop 34 off this list because AP called the race based on results and exit polling.

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